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Journal of Computational Biology

SAGE Publications

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Computational Biology's content profile, based on 48 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Efficient stochastic epidemic simulation via the Sellke construction

van Boven, M.; Bootsma, M. C.

2026-07-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358219 medRxiv
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Stochastic epidemic models are a cornerstone of infectious disease epidemiology and are often used to study intervention scenarios. However, large run-to-run variability can make intervention effects difficult to estimate precisely. We revisit the epidemic Sellke construction, which assigns each individual an infection threshold for the cumulative infection hazard such that, conditional on the thresholds, the epidemic trajectory becomes deterministic. This enables coupling of simulations with and without an intervention, yielding low-variance effect estimates even when outcomes such as final size or peak incidence vary widely between runs. We develop an exact, event-driven implementation that maintains infection and recovery events in priority queues. Cumulative infection-hazard updates require O(log N) time per event, yielding overall complexity O(Elog N) for E events in a population of size N. The implementation achieves computational performance comparable to the classical Gillespie algorithm while naturally accommodating non-Markovian infectious periods and complex infectiousness profiles. We illustrate the approach using distance-dependent spread of avian influenza between poultry farms in the Netherlands and a multilayer population with households, schools, and workplaces. In both examples, coupling enables efficient within-run comparisons of intervention scenarios across stochastic realisations.

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Cube-based screening identifies a quinoa-derived synthetic microbial community that promotes plant growth and modulates root epidermal responses under salt stress

Dangjarean, H.; Murata, Y.; Kobayashi, Y.; Neyrot, S.; Ogata, T.; Fujita, Y.

2026-07-15 plant biology 10.64898/2026.07.15.738596 medRxiv
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Plant-associated bacteria can improve plant performance under abiotic stress, but beneficial functions in plant microbiomes may depend on defined combinations of microorganisms rather than individual isolates alone. Here, we developed a cube-based screening strategy to identify functional synthetic microbial communities (SynComs) from 135 quinoa-associated bacterial isolates while preserving combinatorial diversity and traceability of isolate-level contributions. The isolates were divided into five 27-isolate sets, each arranged as a 3 x 3 x 3 cube in which each 3 x 3 layer was defined as a 9-isolate SynCom, generating 45 SynComs in total. Screening under 100 mM NaCl identified SynCom DY1 (SCDY1) as a candidate salt stress-mitigating consortium. SCDY1 consisted of nine taxonomically diverse isolates and exhibited a multifunctional profile, including siderophore production, phosphate solubilization, carboxymethyl cellulose degradation, indole compound production, and growth under saline conditions. In Arabidopsis thaliana, SCDY1 promoted primary root elongation and biomass accumulation in a salinity-dependent manner, with the clearest effect under 120 mM NaCl, and at least a subset of constituent bacteria was recoverable from inoculated seedlings. RNA sequencing and targeted RT-qPCR indicated that SCDY1 modulated host gene expression under moderate salinity stress, with responsive genes associated with oxidative stress, water- and oxygen-related processes, phenylpropanoid biosynthesis, glutathione metabolism, and root epidermis-related processes. Root hair phenotyping further showed that SCDY1 enhanced root hair-related traits and shifted visible root hair formation closer to the root apex. These findings identify a quinoa-derived SynCom that improves plant performance under salinity stress and provide a practical, traceable framework for discovering beneficial microbial consortia from plant-associated bacterial collections. Scope statementThis manuscript fits the Research Topic "Harnessing Plant Microbiomes for Climate Resilience: From Ecological Insight to Synthetic Community Design" in Frontiers in Plant Science because it presents a traceable strategy for discovering functional synthetic microbial communities from a stress-adapted plant-associated bacterial collection. We developed a cube-based screening strategy using 135 quinoa-associated bacterial isolates and identified a nine-isolate synthetic microbial community, SCDY1, that promotes Arabidopsis growth under moderate salinity stress. The study integrates microbiological screening, characterization of plant growth-promoting traits, bacterial re-isolation, plant growth phenotyping, RNA-seq, RT-qPCR, and root hair phenotyping. These analyses link SCDY1 treatment to salinity-dependent growth promotion, recoverable bacterial members, stress- and redox-associated transcriptional changes, phenylpropanoid-related responses, and modulation of root epidermal phenotypes. By connecting a defined SynCom with host transcriptional and root epidermal responses, this work advances understanding of beneficial plant-microbe interactions under salt stress. The cube-based design also provides a practical and traceable framework for discovering functional SynComs from large plant-associated bacterial collections, which should be of interest to researchers studying plant symbiosis, microbiome engineering, abiotic stress tolerance, and sustainable crop improvement.

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The Variance-Stabilizing Transformation for the Poisson Rate Ratio: Closed-Form Confidence Intervals

Ng, S.-P.

2026-07-18 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358255 medRxiv
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The incidence rate ratio R is the standard measure for comparing event rates in clinical trials and epidemiology. In vaccine trials, the vaccine efficacy is VE = 1 - R. When events are rare, the two arm counts are Poisson. The estimator of R is heteroskedastic: its sampling variance changes with the data. So no fixed-width interval covers correctly everywhere. The usual log-Wald interval is undefined at zero events and covers poorly at small counts. Early vaccine and drug-safety readouts fall in exactly this regime. We show that a single reparameterization collapses this bivariate problem to an effective one-parameter family with a quadratic variance function, whose variance-stabilizing transformation is 2 arcsinh(sqrt(R)). The reduction yields a closed-form confidence interval for R. Its two leading errors, a curvature bias and the variability of the estimated scale, each admit a closed-form correction with no tuning constants. In a Monte Carlo study of our seven arcsinh variants and five competitors, the +Curve+Stu variant covers within 0.002 of the nominal 0.95 for about 50 control and 5 treatment events. Its width is on par with the best competitor. It avoids the conservatism and zero-count breakdown of log-Wald and MOVER. For moderate counts, we recommend this interval; for sparser data, our Bar-Lev and Enis count-shift variant is more robust. The result is a ready-to-use, closed-form interval for the low-count regime. We illustrate it on early Covid-19 vaccine-efficacy readouts and provide reference implementations in R and Python.

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Introducing PHJ Media: A Unique Machine Learning -Driven Basal Formulation to Overcome Recalcitrance for Multi-Genotype Micropropagation of Cannabis sativa L.

Pepe, M.; Hesami, M.; Jones, M.

2026-07-15 plant biology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738465 medRxiv
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Applications of tissue culture are critical for Cannabis sativa L. (cannabis), supporting clonal propagation, germplasm preservation, pathogen elimination, among other biotechnological applications. However, extensive genetic diversity associated with cannabis results in highly variable responses to in vitro conditioning, and no consensus basal media formulation exists to support reproducible micropropagation across genotypes. To address these limitations, a hybridized ensemble-NSGA-II approach was employed for concurrent optimization of individual media components to create a species specific, cultivar inclusive basal salt formulation for cannabis micropropagation. The resulting PHJ media represents a unique formulation that overcomes recalcitrance across a wide array of cannabis cultivars, facilitating improved growth and uniformity for the nine cultivars used in its development and validation. These results remain consistent from explant initiation through multiple rounds of subculture. The ability of PHJ to overcome genotypic recalcitrance is telling of its potential applicability with an array of plant species beyond cannabis. Additionally, robust performance both with and without plant growth regulators underscores the plausible use of PHJ for diverse applications beyond standard micropropagation. Ultimately, this cultivar-inclusive basal medium demonstrates utility for both scientific research and industrial-scale operations.

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Mathematical Modeling of Rift Valley Fever in the Sahelian Zone

Djimramadji, H.; Ndonane, B.; Djaouga, P.; MARKHOUS, H. M.; Djoumountanan, E.; TOBAYE, K.; Abakar, F. M.

2026-07-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358164 medRxiv
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We develop a mathematical model of Rift Valley Fever integrating mosquito vectors, ruminants, and humans, based on an SEIR-type structure with vertical transmission in vectors. Local data from the Sudanian and especially the Sahelian zones are used to capture the impact of climatic variations on mosquito population dynamics. The mathematical analysis establishes the models positivity, determines the basic reproduction number R0, and demonstrates the local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis (PRCC) highlights the most influential parameters, while the stochastic approach using a continuous-time Markov chain confirms the major role of seasonal rainfall. Numerical simulations reveal a peak in animal and human infections around the 9th month, correlating with periods of heavy rainfall. This model provides a relevant tool for surveillance and prevention within a "One Health" approach in Chad.

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Reliability-weighted target prioritization in CD4+ T-cell Perturb-seq: a generalizability-theory decomposition

Cheng, C.

2026-07-15 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.07.13.738312 medRxiv
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Genome-scale Perturb-seq screens prioritize candidate targets by the strength of a perturbations transcriptional effect. Effect strength does not answer a prior measurement question: is the readout dependable? A large effect estimated from a single guide, a single donor, or a pseudobulk of few cells need not survive replication, and for target prioritization each false lead costs a validation experiment. We treat each perturbation effect as a measurement in a crossed Target x Guide x Donor x Condition design and apply generalizability theory (Brennan, 2001; Cronbach et al., 1972) to separate the dependable part of an effect from facet-specific idiosyncrasy. Guides and donors enter as random facets; condition enters as a fixed facet and is analyzed within its levels. For each target we report a dependability profile over the facets and a joint generalizability coefficient over the two random facets, and we re-rank targets by effect magnitude weighted by that coefficient. On the released screen (Zhu et al., 2025), removing the measurement-error floor estimated from the non-targeting controls raises the number of genes with a dependable target-signal share above .10 from 40 to 7,674. Analyzed within activation states, dependability recovers the T-cell-receptor signaling module as reliably measurable only in activated cells, without recourse to gene annotation. A design study indicates that reliability is limited by the number of guides rather than the number of donors, so a future screen should add guides. Every methodological decision was recorded and adversarially reviewed, and all results regenerate from the released summary statistics.

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Gene Regulatory Networks that support Multi-Fate Cellular Decisions

BV, H.; Adigwe, S.; Jolly, M. K.; Gedeon, T.

2026-07-15 systems biology 10.64898/2026.07.13.738161 medRxiv
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AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWCell fate decisions are driven by gene regulatory networks (GRNs). While the mutually inhibitory toggle switch effectively models binary fate decisions, fully connected inhibitory networks with more than two nodes fail to capture multi-fate decisions due to the low prevalence of "single high states", where only a single master regulator is highly expressed. The goal of this study is to find network structures that support all single high states. We find that the only network that attains the highest possible prevalence of all single high states within the set of monotone Boolean (MB) models is completely disconnected. Since biological networks typically require connectivity, we investigate network structures that support equipotency, where all single high states have equal prevalence within MB models. Finally, we characterize the networks that support multistability between all single high states, finding that it is possible only in networks in which each node either has self-activations or is inhibited by every other network node. Our findings provide a theoretical framework for understanding the network design principles that can support simultaneous differentiation into multiple distinct cell types.

8
Beyond climatic drought indices : an hydraulic approach to quantifying forest water stress

Cochard, H.

2026-07-15 plant biology 10.64898/2026.07.13.738371 medRxiv
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The article introduces a new Forest Stress Index (ISF) based on a plant hydraulic modelling approach rather than classical climatic drought indices. Unlike other index like scPDSI or SPEI, ISF is grounded in xylem embolism dynamics simulated with the mechanistic SurEau model. The goal is to better link climatic anomalies to tree physiological functioning and mortality risk. ISF is defined using a locally adapted ideotype characterized by an optimal P50 value under a reference hydraulic functioning threshold. Simulations are performed across Europe and France using multiple climate datasets. The index is robust to model parameterization choices and assumptions about plant functional traits. Results show strong spatial and temporal consistency and significant correlations with SPEI and scPDSI. However, ISF more strongly highlights extreme drought years and exhibits a more skewed distribution. Future projections under SSP5-8.5 indicate a widespread increase in hydraulic stress with strong regional contrasts. Overall, ISF provides a mechanistic and complementary drought indicator more directly linked to forest mortality processes.

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Photobiomodulation promotes wound healing and functional improvement following lumbar decompression surgery: a double-blinded, placebo-controlled study

Rivera, J.; Zhou, Y.; Sak, L.; Pudewa, F.; Lee, J.; Yamamoto, M. T.; Yoo, H.; Lum, M.; Zhang, M.; Patel, A.; Vandenberghe, L. E.; Fenn, S. K.; Wang, Y.; Bailey, B.; Holley, S. M.; Vivas, A. C.; Holly, L. T.; Lu, D. C.

2026-07-17 surgery 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357882 medRxiv
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Objective: Photobiomodulation therapy has emerged as a promising modality to facilitate scar healing and pain management in dermatology and plastic surgery. However, its role in postoperative care following spine surgeries remains understudied. This double-blinded, placebo-controlled study aimed to investigate the effects of photobiomodulation in patients with chronic lower back pain undergoing lumbar decompression, with postoperative wound healing as the primary outcome and pain reduction and functional recovery as secondary outcomes. Methods: Patients were randomized to receive either active photobiomodulation braces (N=13) or placebo braces (N=12). Follow-up assessments were performed at 2, 4, 6, 8, and 12 weeks postoperatively. Outcomes included wound healing (Stony Brook Scar Evaluation Scale), back and leg pain (Visual Analog Scale), quality of life (EuroQol 5D), and functional status (Oswestry Disability Index). Results: Compared to the placebo group, the photobiomodulation treatment group had a 4.12-fold cumulative improvement in final scar scores, with significant between-group differences at postoperative weeks 6, 8, and 12 (p = 0.0062, 0.010, 0.042). Among patients with severe preoperative disability, treatment resulted in a 1.89-fold faster improvement in back pain (p=0.025) and a 1.80-fold faster improvement in ODI scores (p=0.025); and superior treatment effect on wound healing were again observed at weeks 6, 8, and 12. Among patients with poor initial scars, treatment led to a significantly better scar outcome than placebo at week 6 and a 1.94-fold faster EQ5D improvement (p=0.052), with significant gains observed as early as two weeks after surgery. There were no adverse events associated with photobiomodulation treatment. Conclusions: Photobiomodulation significantly promoted postoperative wound healing following lumbar decompression surgery, with therapeutic benefits preserved even in patients with poor baseline scar scores and functional impairment. This indicates that the efficacy of photobiomodulation is not limited by the initial scar condition or disability, supporting its broad clinical applicability. Additionally, patients with severe preoperative disability experienced greater benefits from photobiomodulation than placebo, including faster reduction in back pain and more rapid improvement in functional capacity, highlighting its role in postoperative pain management and rehabilitation. These therapeutic effects are likely mediated by photobiomodulation-induced reduction of inflammation and enhancement of tissue repair. Together, this study suggests that photobiomodulation can be a promising adjunct therapy to facilitate postoperative recovery in patients undergoing spine surgery.

10
Portable Ultra-Low Field MRI Deep-Learning Algorithms for White Matter Lesion Segmentation Improve Accuracy and Reflect Clinical Disability in Multiple Sclerosis

Thommana, A. A.; Donnay, C. A.; Norato, G.; Gaitan, M. I.; Griffanti, L.; Nair, G.; Reich, D. S.; Okar, S. V.

2026-07-17 neurology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357954 medRxiv
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White matter lesion (WML) identification, assessment, and characterization using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are fundamental for diagnosis and monitoring of multiple sclerosis (MS). Portable ultra-low field (pULF) MRI at 64 millitesla (mT) has been shown to visualize WML with at least one dimension greater than 4 mm. An automated WML segmentation tool catered to pULF-MRI can provide standardized and accurate quantitative measurements of WML volume. In this study, we sought to investigate and compare the accuracy of machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) pULF MRI segmentation tools. Same-day paired pULF (64mT) and high-field (HF, 3T) MRI scans from 84 adults with MS or suspected-MS (mean age {+/-} SD: 48 {+/-} 13, 62 females) included T2-FLAIR and T1w images. Reference WML segmentations were manually annotated on pULF T2-FLAIR for all scans, with WML confirmed with registered HF T2-FLAIR. HF reference WML segmentations were created. Four automated segmentation methods were applied to pULF scans: Method for Inter-Modal Segmentation Analysis (MIMoSA), an ML algorithm trained on HF WML masks; WMH-SynthSeg, a convolutional neural network model with flexible segmentation capabilities across field strengths and resolution; nnU-Net, a DL algorithm trained on pULF reference WML masks; and Pseudo-Label Assisted nnU-Net (PLAn), a DL algorithm pre-trained on HF reference WML masks and refined with 64mT reference WML masks. Two models were trained with nnU-Net, one using T2-FLAIR images only (nnU-Net-FL) and one using T1w and T2-FLAIR images (nnU-Net-FL/T1). The same was done with PLAn, creating PLAn-FL and PLAn-FL/T1. The six automated WML segmentation outputs were compared to the manual segmentations to determine Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) scores. Associations of WML volume estimates with clinical measures were investigated. DSC scores with pULF reference WML masks from PLAn-FL (DSC mean {+/-} SD: 0.50 {+/-} 0.24) outperformed MIMoSA (0.24 {+/-} 0.20, p < 0.0001), WMH-SynthSeg (0.30 {+/-} 0.18, p < 0.0001), nnU-Net-FL (0.41 {+/-} 0.24, p < 0.0001), and nnU-Net-FL/T1 (0.41 {+/-} 0.26, p = 0.0004). Worse Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Scripps Neurologic Rating Scale (SNRS) scores were correlated with higher WML volumes in the pULF and HF reference masks. They were also correlated with WML volumes derived from WHM-SynthSeg, nnU-Net-FL, nnU-Net-FL/T1, PLAn-FL, and PLAn-FL/T1, but not MIMoSA. After adjusting for age, WHM-SynthSeg, nnU-Net FL, nnU-Net-FL/T1, PLAn-FL, and PLAn-FL/T1 had significant associations with EDSS and SNRS scores. nnU-Net and PLAn performed best in segmenting WML on pULF-MRI at 64 mT, providing accurate quantitative estimates of WML burden. Moreover, WML volumes estimated by these algorithms were associated with clinical measures of disability, underscoring their utility for reflecting clinical and radiological disease severity. Given pULF-MRI's mobility and lower cost, these findings highlight its relevance in clinical trials, particularly in involving more participants who face logistical constraints and barriers.

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Microvascular Thrombosis and Acute Kidney Injury in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Quantitative Analysis

Duarte, C. A.; Uscocovich, V. S. M.; Misael, I.; Duarte, P. D. A. C.; Sestito, E. B.; Da SIlva, P. N.

2026-07-17 nephrology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26357748 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective: To synthesize the available evidence on the association between SARS-CoV-2-related microvascular thrombosis and acute kidney injury (AKI), with emphasis on renal outcomes, mortality, and renal replacement therapy requirements. Methods: This systematic review followed the PRISMA 2020 statement and was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251132701). PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase were searched for systematic reviews, including meta-analyses, and umbrella reviews investigating the association between SARS-CoV-2-related microvascular thrombosis and acute kidney injury. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, data extraction, and methodological quality assessment using AMSTAR-2 and ROBIS. Evidence was synthesized through a structured narrative synthesis supported by quantitative data extracted from the included reviews. Results: Six evidence syntheses evaluating kidney involvement, thrombotic events, and microvascular mechanisms in COVID-19 were included. AKI incidence was 9.2% (95%CI 4.6-13.9) among hospitalized patients and 32.6% (95%CI 8.5-56.6) among critically ill patients. In children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with SARS-CoV-2, AKI incidence was 20% (95%CI 14-28). Microvascular or thrombotic events were associated with adverse renal outcomes (OR 2.14; 95%CI 1.32-3.48). AKI was associated with increased mortality (OR 4.68; 95%CI 1.06-20.70) and greater likelihood of renal replacement therapy requirement (OR 2.87; 95%CI 1.45-5.68). The certainty of evidence ranged from moderate to high for the principal outcomes. Conclusion: Current evidence supports an important association between microvascular thrombotic injury and COVID-19-associated AKI. These findings reinforce the relevance of endothelial dysfunction and thromboinflammatory pathways in kidney involvement during COVID-19 and highlight the need for early renal monitoring, risk stratification, and kidney-protective strategies in high-risk patients. Keywords: COVID-19; Acute Kidney Injury; Microvascular Thrombosis; SARS-CoV-2; Renal Replacement Therapy; Systematic Review

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Rest-Activity Rhythm Variability Across Clinical Episodes of Bipolar Disorder: Standalone Biomarker or Statistical Artifact?

Konicarova, C.-A.; Schneider, J.; Spaniel, F.; Kolenic, M.; Alda, M.; Bakstein, E.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358139 medRxiv
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Background: Actigraphy-derived rest-activity rhythm (RAR) features are widely used to characterize clinical states in bipolar disorder (BD). Both mean levels and temporal variability of these features have been associated with mood episodes; however, variability measures are often statistically coupled with the mean, particularly in skewed distributions. This raises a question as to whether variability reflects a separate characteristic of the data or whether the observed association arises from statistical properties of the data. Objective: In this study, we aim to determine whether temporal variability of actigraphy-derived RAR features provides standalone information on mood episodes in BD beyond mean activity levels after accounting for mean-variance dependence. Methods: We analyzed actigraphy data from a subset of 72 participants with BD drawn from a larger longitudinal study, extracting 22 daily RAR features aggregated weekly as sample mean (MEAN) and within-week temporal variability computed as sample standard deviation (VAR). Variance-stabilizing transformations (Box-Cox or Yeo-Johnson) were applied to the entire study cohort to reduce mean-variance dependence. Associations with mood episodes and remission (mania: n=34; depression: n=58 annotated participants) were evaluated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a logistic link function, including univariate (MEAN or VAR) and multivariate (MEAN+VAR) specifications, assessed by likelihood-based metrics and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Transformations reduced mean-absolute correlations from 0.43 to below 0.06. Temporal variability remained significantly associated with clinical state for 11/22 RAR features in mania and 16/22 features in depression, with all significant associations remaining after false discovery rate correction (p<0.05). Joint models showed modest incremental gains (AUC 3%-4% overall; up to 12% in mania, 7% in depression), with absolute performance remaining limited (AUC 0.50-0.66). In both mania and depression, nearly all significant variability-based regressors contributed incremental information beyond mean-based models. Only sleep duration and activity changes around wake time (+-1 hour), did not improve discrimination between mania and remission. Conclusions: Temporal variability in RAR features can be considered a standalone state marker of mood episodes not captured by mean activity. We found it to be more consistently associated with depression than mania. Its incremental discriminative contribution is modest, suggesting greater utility within multivariate or multimodal frameworks.

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PARIS (Pneumonia: Acute Respiratory Infection +/- Sepsis): a prospective single-centre observational cohort study of hospitalised patients with pneumonia

Nasser, S. T.; Piercy, C. R.; Falinska, A.; O'Sullivan, D. M.; Devonshire, A.; Martinez-Estrada, F.; Huggett, J.; Creagh-Brown, B. C.

2026-07-17 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357955 medRxiv
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Introduction Hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is heterogeneous in aetiology, severity, and outcome. Phenotyping and endotyping approaches offer potential to stratify patients biologically and guide targeted therapy, but require well-characterised cohorts with linked biosamples. We describe the PARIS (Pneumonia: Acute Respiratory Infection +/- Sepsis) study: a prospective observational cohort of hospitalised patients with pneumonia, designed to characterise functional outcomes and to provide a biobank for translational immunological research. Methods Adults admitted with CAP to a single NHS district general hospital were enrolled within 24 hours of admission between December 2020 and March 2022. Clinical, functional, and physiological data were collected at enrolment, hospital discharge, and 6-8 week follow-up. Serial blood samples were collected for flow cytometry, transcriptomics, pathogen DNA detection, and plasma biobanking. Results Forty-seven patients were enrolled (15 without and 32 with sepsis [SOFA >=2] at enrolment); 87% met sepsis criteria by 24 hours post enrolment. Most patients (30/47, 64%) were managed as COVID-19, microbiologically confirmed in 27. Mean age was 57 years (SD 16), 70% were male, and baseline comorbidity burden was low. Severity was moderate (median NEWS2 4 at enrolment, rising to 6 by 24 hours post enrolment; p<0.001). Mortality was 4/47 (8.5%), with 44/47 (94%) alive at hospital discharge. Median length of stay was 8 days (IQR 5.5-11). Translational samples were collected from the majority: fresh flow cytometry (44/47, 94%), transcriptomics from the sepsis subgroup (31/32, 97%), pathogen DNA sampling (35 samples received across study timepoints; see Table 5), and stored plasma (29/47, 62%). The primary outcome of functional decline (Barthel score decrease >=1.85) occurred in only 1/29 patients with paired assessments (3.4%). Persistent CRP elevation (>3 mg/L) at 6-8 week follow-up was present in 16/31 (52%) survivors with available data. Conclusions The PARIS cohort provides a well-characterised clinical platform and linked biobank to support translational studies of pneumonia and sepsis. The low rate of functional decline reflects the younger, lower-comorbidity, COVID-predominant population recruited. Primary protocol endpoints were not achieved owing to pandemic-related disruption. Data and samples underpin a programme of linked translational studies.

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Machine learning and data-driven models for predicting post-stroke dysphagia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Mohammadi Yazdi, S.; Motevaselian, M.; Khatami, S.; Radfar, N.; jourahmad, z.; Perez, H. A.

2026-07-17 neurology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358113 medRxiv
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Background: Post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) contributes to aspiration, pneumonia, malnutrition, prolonged hospitalization and mortality. We evaluated the discrimination, validity and readiness of machine learning and data-driven prediction models for PSD-related outcomes. Methods: Following a prospectively registered protocol (PROSPERO CRD420261419259), we searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, CINAHL and CENTRAL from inception through June 7, 2026. Eligible studies developed or validated multivariable prediction models for PSD-related outcomes in adults with stroke. We used PROBAST and PROBAST+AI to assess risk of bias and applicability and TRIPOD+AI to evaluate reporting. Area under the curve (AUC) estimates were pooled on the logit scale with random-effects models. Results: Twenty-four studies were included and ten contributed to meta-analysis. Four studies predicting early or incident PSD yielded a pooled AUC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.60-0.99; I2 = 95.6%). Pooled AUCs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.92) for aspiration or penetration-aspiration and 0.89 (95% CI 0.24-1.00) for severe dysphagia. The exploratory analysis of all ten risk-prediction models produced an AUC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.80-0.95), but heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 90.3%) and the prediction interval was 0.51-0.99. Every study had high risk of bias because of analysis-domain concerns; calibration and external validation were uncommon. Conclusions: Reported discrimination was often high, but the evidence does not establish reliable performance in care. Independent validation, calibration, complete model reporting and clinical-impact studies are needed before these models guide post-stroke swallowing care. Keywords: Post-stroke dysphagia; Stroke; Deglutition disorders; Machine learning; Clinical prediction model; Area under the curve; Meta-analysis

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Reconsidering the case against risk prediction in self-harm: routinely collected health data distinguishes groups at higher and lower risk of adverse outcomes following paracetamol overdose

Oxley, J.; Schölin, L.; Brennan, G.; Anand, A.; Brett, J.; Eddleston, M.; Humphries, C.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358127 medRxiv
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Background. UK clinical guidance recommends that structured risk prediction tools and risk stratification should not be used in self-harm, to predict suicide or determine who is offered treatment. Underpinning this position is the premise that routinely collected health data contain no useful predictive signal, which has received little direct scrutiny. Objective. To test whether routinely collected electronic health record data can distinguish groups at higher and lower risk of severe outcomes following paracetamol overdose. Methods. We analysed 4,095 adults presenting to NHS Lothian emergency departments with paracetamol overdose (2017-2023). Elastic-net logistic regression was fitted to 37 routinely collected electronic health record features to predict a composite of death or mental health inpatient admission at 0-7, 8-30 and 31-365 days following attendance, evaluated on a held-out 20% test set with bootstrapping. Findings. Events occurred in 5.5% of patients at 0-7 days, 2.0% at 8-30 days and 7.9% at 31-365 days, dominated by mental health admission. Bootstrap AUROC 95% confidence intervals lay above 0.5 in every window (0.65-0.82, 0.63-0.90, 0.71-0.85): models ranked patients better than chance. Calibration slopes (1.04, 1.14, 1.07) were close to one. Ranking drew primarily on mental health-related features. Conclusions. Routinely collected health data carried predictive signal for severe outcomes after paracetamol overdose, although discrimination fell short of what is needed for individual-level clinical use. Clinical implications. These models are not proposed for clinical deployment; however, treating risk prediction as a settled question will redirect research efforts, potentially excluding this patient population from machine learning advances driving improvements in care in other medical specialties.

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Alcohol consumption during pregnancy dysregulates maternofetal angiogenic and inflammatory factors with sex specificities

Sautreuil, C.; Lesueur, C.; Pinto Cardoso, G.; Bruel, H.; Biran, V.; Muller, J.-B.; Duigou, A.-L.; Datin-Dorriere, V.; Verspyck, E.; Marguet, F.; Laquerriere, A.; Gressens, P.; Gonzalez, B.; Marret, S.

2026-07-17 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357094 medRxiv
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Prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) is a major cause of neurodevelopmental disorders, yet most children are diagnosed late or misdiagnosed. Neuroplacentology suggest that placental factors released into maternal and/or umbilical cord blood contribute to fetal brain development. Consistently, a preclinical inter-organ transcriptomic database revealed that PAE disrupts the expression ratio of angiogenic and inflammatory factors suggesting an angio-inflammatory response. This study aimed i) to assay, by multiplex immunoassay, angiogenic and inflammatory factors in maternal and umbilical cord blood from alcohol-consuming women and ii) to perform a maternofetal analysis according to neonatal sex. Afterwards, dysregulated factors from mothers who gave birth to females or males were submitted to STRING and ShinyGO analyses. Results showed that PAE differently altered the distribution profiles of dysregulated angiogenic and inflammatory factors in maternal and umbilical cord blood. Moreover, sex-specific differences were observed, with 36% of dysregulated proteins specific to males, 48% to females, and 16% common to both. STRING analysis revealed robust functional protein-protein interactions linking together inflammatory and angiogenic clusters while the ShinyGO analysis identified enriched pathways related to vascular shear stress. These findings provide the first maternofetal analysis of combined angiogenic and inflammatory factors from alcohol-consuming mothers.

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Implementation of a standardized Video-based Asynchronous Neurological Examination (VANE) in a multi-center observational study of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and AD related dementias

Noble, J. M.; Nadkarni, N. K.; Martinez, D.; Temprosa, M.; Bowers, A.; Carmichael, O.; Doherty, L.; Febres, G. J.; Sanchez, D. L.; Goldberg, T. E.; Sherif, H.; Shah, V.; Luchsinger, J. A.; DPP Research Group,

2026-07-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357456 medRxiv
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Introduction: The Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS) is an established cohort of aging persons with pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes with 25 years of median follow-up. In 2022 DPPOS added Alzheimer's disease (AD), and AD related dementias (ADRD) phenotyping using the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) Uniform Data Set (UDSv3), which included a standardized neurological examination across 25 clinical sites, administered by clinical staff and interpreted centrally by clinicians. Methods: A DPPOS video-based asynchronous neurological examination (DPPOS-VANE) was developed iteratively through consensus from research clinicians and staff feedback to harmonize with UDSv3 to identify common neurological diagnoses aside from dementia including diabetic cranial neuropathies, stroke and parkinsonism. DPPOS-VANE was designed to be conducted without direct participant contact by the examiner, reproducible, and independent of clinical skills of PCs. An iPad camera recorded the video exam, comprised of assessments of extraocular and facial movements, visual fields, speech, gross motor strength, pronator drift, praxis and parkinsonism. A 10-minute training video demonstrated the examination step-by-step with scripts and instructions in English and Spanish. Site-specific performance review, feedback, and staff certification preceded central reading of video recordings by physicians. After two years of implementation, 1286 DPPOS-VANEs led to 1284 examination reviews. Of these, 1204 (93%) were completed by having the examiner follow the standard script. Overall, 1237 examinations (96%) were delivered as planned, 41 (3%) had minor errors but were still usable, and 6 (0.4%) had major deviations in exam technique; two additional recorded evaluations were not usable as recorded videos were inaccessible due to technical errors. Each examination was completed within 10-15 minutes. Each site on average completed 51.4 examinations (range 14-92). Discussion: Engaging 55 research staff across 25 sites and 3 physician-reviewers, this study is the first to demonstrate feasibility of a VANE as an efficient neurological examination model enabled by commonly used devices. Such a multisite standardized VANE represents a novel paradigm for large epidemiological studies.

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Comparing different neuroimaging modalities for quantification of the cholinergic system in Parkinson's disease

d'Angremont, E.; Marschall, T. M.; Renken, R. J.; Sommer, I. E.

2026-07-17 neurology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357522 medRxiv
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Introduction Parkinson's disease (PD) is a multifactorial disorder, affecting multiple neurotransmitter systems, including the cholinergic system. Cholinergic denervation is heterogeneous across patients and difficult to predict based on clinical presentation. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of structural MRI (sMRI) and functional MRI (fMRI) to cholinergic degeneration related to PD and to cognitive functioning in PD. We compared our results to results from previously reported [18F]Fluoroethoxybenzovesamicol ([18F]FEOBV) PET imaging, which is considered the gold standard for cholinergic imaging. Methods 34 PD patients and 10 healthy controls underwent structural T1-weighted MRI. A subset of 14 patients and 9 controls also underwent resting-state fMRI. We extracted the bilateral volumes of the nucleus basalis of Meynert (NBM) from the sMRI images. Functional connectivity (FC) from the NBM to the cortex (NBM-FC) was determined using fMRI data. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the dimensionality of the NBM-FC images. We assessed performances for NBM-FC in distinguishing patients from controls using stepwise logistic regression. Similarly, NBM volume was used using logistic regression. Furthermore, the relation between these measures and cognitive function in several domains was investigated with (stepwise) linear regression. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) and bootstrapping was performed to assess robustness of the results. Results NBM-FC was well able to discriminate patients from controls with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.62-1). NBM volume showed lower performance, but was still better than chance: AUC: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57-0.93). Significant correlations were found between 1) cognition in the attentional domain and NBM-FC (r=0.63; p=.015) and 2) global cognition and NBM volume (r=0.55, p=.001). These results were inferior to those previously reported using [18F]FEOBV tracer uptake (see Chapter 6). Bootstrapping revealed that NBM volume of only the left hemisphere was stably related to PD diagnosis and global cognition in PD patients. We found that a lower NBM-FC in specific brain areas, including the fusiform gyrus, supramarginal gyrus and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was related to PD diagnosis. Bootstrapping revealed no stable NBM-FC pattern related to attention. Conclusion Although MRI results were slightly inferior to [18F]FEOBV PET data, MRI may provide a cheaper and more widely available alternative for cholinergic imaging. We recommend testing the utility of MRI as predictor and monitor of cholinergic treatment effect in a longitudinal study.

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Trait Resilience Modulates the Association Between Cortisol and Aperiodic Neural Dynamics

Lee, K. F. A.; Asharaf, S. T.; Liang, L.; Lee, T. M. C.

2026-07-15 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.07.09.737399 medRxiv
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Cortisol, our stress hormone, exerts widespread influence on neural activity. However, its influence on the aperiodic component of the electroencephalography power spectrum remains to be investigated. Given individual differences in the capacity to cope with stress and adversity, it also remains unclear whether trait resilience moderates this relationship. Hence, the present study examined whether individual differences in trait resilience moderates the association between resting cortisol and aperiodic activity. Participants (N=145) completed various self-report questionnaires (e.g., trait resilience). Electroencephalography was recorded over a 20-minute baseline period, followed by salivary cortisol collection. The results revealed a significant moderating effect of trait resilience in the occipital scalp region. Specifically, higher cortisol concentration was associated with flatter 1/f slopes amongst individuals with low trait resilience, whereas this association was reversed amongst those with high trait resilience. Overall, our findings highlight the role of individual differences in trait resilience in shaping hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis-related neural dynamics.

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How Do Nurses Make Clinical Decisions Via Remote Reviews: A Convergent Mixed-Methods Study

Zhang, Y.; Sutherland, S.; GREENWAY, K.; Stayt, L.

2026-07-17 nursing 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357946 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Remote clinical reviews have become an integral component of contemporary nursing practice across community and acute care settings. Nurses increasingly make autonomous clinical decisions using telephone, video, and online/digital systems, often with limited sensory information and under conditions of uncertainty. However, empirical understanding of how nurses make clinical decisions via remote reviews remains limited. Aim: To explore and understand how registered nurses (RNs) make clinical decisions about patient care via remote reviews. Methods: A convergent mixed-methods design was employed. Quantitative data (analytic quantitative sample N=53) were collected using validated questionnaires that measured decision-making processes, physician-nurse collaboration, decision-making stress, and perceived decision-making ability. Qualitative data (N=23) were generated through semi-structured interviews. Data collection took place between October 2024 and April 2025. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and multiple regression. Qualitative data were analysed using framework analysis. Integration was achieved through pillar-building and theory-driven synthesis and illustrated by joint display tables. Results: Most nurses demonstrated a flexible decision-making style, integrating analytical and intuitive reasoning. Both analytical and intuitive processes were positively associated with perceived decision-making ability. Physician-nurse collaboration emerged as a strong predictor of decision-making confidence, while decision-related stress was not a significant predictor. Qualitative findings identified three themes: characteristics of remote review; making adaptive decisions shaped by both internal and external constraints and enablers; and external influencing factors. The integrated findings informed a theory-informed ICE framework to illustrate how nurses make clinical decisions via remote reviews. Conclusion: Remote clinical decision-making is a dynamic cognitive-environmental process rather than a purely individual cognitive act. The ICE framework conceptualises this interaction, extending existing decision-making theories to digitally mediated care. Impact: Understanding remote decision-making supports training design, clinical governance, and the development of Artificial Intelligence-enhanced decision-support tools grounded in ecological bounded rationality. Patient or Public Contribution: Patient and public representatives contributed to stakeholder discussions that informed the development of the interview topic guide and the theoretical model. Patients or members of the public were not involved in recruitment, data collection, analysis, interpretation of findings, or preparation of the manuscript. Keywords: clinical decision-making, remote reviews, telehealth, nursing, mixed methods, ecological bounded rationality